Tamil Nadu 2026 What-If — Flip the Closest Seats
Flip the closest N seats from winner to runner-up. Watch the seat tally recompute. A thought experiment, not a forecast.
Simulate by
5001k2k3k5k7.5k10k15k25k
The analyst's credibly-in-play threshold. ≤ 2k = polling-day noise; ≤ 5k = a real anti-incumbent wind; ≤ 10k = a wave. Move the slider to widen the wind.
After 27 flips
TVK111DMK61AIADMK47INC4PMK3VCK1CPI2CPI(M)2IUML1DMDK2
| Party | Baseline | After flips | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TVK | 108 | 111 | +3 |
| DMK | 59 | 61 | +2 |
| AIADMK | 47 | 47 | 0 |
| INC | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| PMK | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| VCK | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| CPI | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| CPI(M) | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| IUML | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| DMDK | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| BJP | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| AMMK | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Seats included in the flip
- AC 185TIRUPPATTUR · SEENIVASA SETHUPATHY. R → PERIAKARUPPAN. KRTVK→DMK+1
- AC 54VEPPANAHALLI · SRINIVASAN.P.S → MUNUSAMY.K.PDMK→AIADMK+138
- AC 229KANNIYAKUMARI · THALAVAI SUNDARAM. N → MAHESH.RAIADMK→DMK+214
- AC 66POLUR · ABISHEK. R → SARAVANAN. PTVK→DMDK+227
- AC 76TIRUKKOYILUR · PALANISAMY S → VIJAY R BARANIBALAAJIAIADMK→TVK+285
- AC 95PARAMATHI VELUR · SEKAR S → MOORTHIY K SAIADMK→DMK+308
- AC 137KULITHALAI · SURIYANUR. A. CHANDRAN → G.BALASUBRAMANIDMK→TVK+579
- AC 171KUMBAKONAM · VINOTH → ANBALAGAN GTVK→DMK+679
- AC 127PALANI · RAVIMANOHARAN. K → DR. PRAVEEN KUMAR. MAIADMK→TVK+693
- AC 72TINDIVANAM · VANNI ARASU → ARJUNAN. PVCK→AIADMK+734
- AC 201CUMBUM · JEGANATHMISHRA PLA → ERAMAKRISHNAN NTVK→DMK+751
- AC 80KALLAKURICHI · ARUL VIGNESH C → RAJEEVGANDHI STVK→AIADMK+798
- AC 218KOVILPATTI · KARUNANITHI.K → BALASUBRAMANIAN.SDMK→TVK+843
- AC 75VIKRAVANDI · SIVAKUMAR C → VIJAI VADIVEL APMK→TVK+910
- AC 108UDHAGAMANDALAM · BHOJARAJAN.M → IBRAHIM.RBJP→TVK+976
- AC 172PAPANASAM · A.M. SHAHJAHAN → AZARUDEEN UDUMAN ALIIUML→TVK+1,065
- AC 132DINDIGUL · SENTHILKUMAR. I.P → NAZEER RAJA. GDMK→TVK+1,131
- AC 216SRIVAIKUNTAM · SARAVANAN. G → SHANMUGANATHAN. S. PTVK→AIADMK+1,186
- AC 187MANAMADURAI · ELANGOVAN.D → TAMILARASI.ATVK→DMK+1,208
- AC 105ANTHIYUR · HARIBASKAR.P → SIVABALAN.MAIADMK→DMK+1,260
- AC 234KILLIYOOR · RAJESH KUMAR. S → SABIN. SINC→TVK+1,311
- AC 138MANAPPARAI · R. KATHIRAVAN → DR. PL. VIJAYAKUMARTVK→AIADMK+1,426
- AC 181THIRUMAYAM · REGUPATHY.S → CHINTHAMANI.CDMK→TVK+1,492
- AC 167MANNARGUDI · KAMARAJ. S → RAJAA.T.R.BAMMK→DMK+1,566
- AC 197USILAMPATTI · VIJAY. M → MAHENDRAN. ITVK→AIADMK+1,805
- AC 135KARUR · M.R. VIJAYABHASKAR → MATHIYALAGAN V.PAIADMK→TVK+1,821
- AC 180PUDUKKOTTAI · V. MUTHURAJA → K.M. SHARIFFDMK→TVK+1,867